What This Hot-and-Cold Housing Market Means for You

By Nick Kellar

Nick Kellar is a dedicated real estate consultant, investor, and community steward serving Baltimore and the surrounding areas.

Right now the market feels like a split personality; some sort of a Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde situation. Same county, similar price points, and I’ve got one listing that went under contract for $25,000 over asking, while another can barely get a showing.

The agents on comparable homes that are also sitting tell me the same thing.

So if the market feels confusing, you’re not imagining it. It’s genuinely hot and cold at once, and understanding why is the difference between a good decision and a frustrated one.

Patience wins in a slow market. What I can tell you clearly is that sellers are feeling pressure, and that changes how deals get done. I had buyers offer $650,000 with closing help on a home listed at $700,000. The seller held firm at $690,000, and instead of firing back another counter, I told my buyers to sit still. Showings had dried up, and I didn’t think the seller had the traffic to hold out. Inside a week, the listing agent reached back out. The seller wanted to re-engage, came back lower, and we closed the gap on our terms. Patience did what a bidding war never would have.

Reading the seller changes everything. Reading the situation matters as much as the numbers. On another deal, we won a competitive offer well over list price, and inspections turned up a few non-emergency repairs. Rather than fix them, the sellers offered a credit, and we negotiated forty thousand back off the price we stretched to win. I knew those sellers had been burned by a deal that fell through the year before and were anxious about going back on the market. That was real information, and using it to hold my ground got my buyers a far better outcome. That’s not luck, that’s paying attention.

A seasonal slowdown is here. So who has the leverage right now? It depends on the house, the location, and the price point. This is the seasonal slowdown I warn every seller about heading into the third quarter, and in our area it’s real; activity typically drops about 8% as fewer homes sell and prices soften. It got quiet in mid-August. Usually, if the market bounces back, we see it by late September or October, as buyers try to land a home before the holidays. This year, I’m not confident that bump is coming.

Affordability is holding buyers back. Rates are around 7%, an 18-month high, and if you don’t need to move, these aren’t easy conditions to buy in. Anyone who tells you otherwise is lying through their teeth. A lot of buyers are looking at these rates and figuring they’ll wait until spring and hope rates ease. That’s a reasonable call, and honestly, I might feel the same way.

Less competition is a real opening. But sitting out isn’t the only smart move, because pressure cuts both ways. Competition has thinned dramatically; mortgage applications are down 19% year over year, a staggering number of people who’ve stepped aside. That’s room to breathe for anyone still looking. And as my two deals show, plenty of sellers will make a deal right now. Nobody’s giving homes away, but the door is open.

Buy down your rate, not the price. Instead of chasing a price cut, negotiate closing help and use it to buy down your rate. When rates come down, and they will, you refinance and drop your payment again. You turn a seller’s motivation into two wins. Less competition plus negotiable sellers is a genuine opportunity, just not for everyone.

So is it a good market? My honest answer is a question back. Good to do what? Selling is one conversation, buying is another, and it comes down to your situation. If you can comfortably wait, that’s fine. But if there’s real pressure to move, there are opportunities worth finding, and I’d rather help you find them with the full picture in front of you.

Call or text me at 443-375-2224, email me at nick@storyline-homes.com, or visitblog.storyline-homes.com, and let’s dig into what actually fits your situation.